sa国际传媒鈥檚 tourism industry will likely take a hit this year because of the coronavirus outbreak in China, say economists.
Bryan Yu, deputy chief economist for Central 1 Credit Union, said fears over the virus will affect tourism as people cancel travel plans out of an abundance of caution.
On Thursday, the World Health Organization declared that the coronavirus is an international public health emergency of international concern, as the disease continues to spread outside of China. The number of confirmed cases exceeded 8,000, including three in sa国际传媒, and the number of deaths in China jumped to 170.
Speaking at a news conference in Geneva Thursday, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the main reason for the declaration is because of the spread to other countries.
The WHO said there had been 98 cases in 18 countries outside of China. As of Thursday afternoon, no deaths had been reported in countries outside of China.
Yu said with the declaration, travel will drop off, and declines will be felt across sa国际传媒, but they will be disproportionately felt in sa国际传媒 because of the strong Asia-Pacific ties in Vancouver. It鈥檚 unknown how long it will take before travel resumes to normal.
sa国际传媒 receives about half of all Chinese travellers and 60 per cent of travellers from other Asian countries, he said. Ontario receives about 40 per cent of Chinese visitors.
During the SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003, the number of non-resident travellers fell by 20 per cent in sa国际传媒. However, that number could be higher with this outbreak because travel from China has increased seven times since the pre-SARS period, said Yu.
鈥淎 decline today would have a more significant impact on Canadian tourism,鈥� said Yu, adding that it is difficult to estimate how much it could cost the sa国际传媒 economy.
Many airlines have temporarily stopped flying in and out of China, including Air sa国际传媒, which halted all flights to Beijing and Shanghai on Thursday.
Yu said the travel restrictions and fears of the virus will have a ripple effect, so that travellers from all countries, and not just China, cancel trips to sa国际传媒.
With a slump in travel, sa国际传媒 attractions, entertainment, restaurants and ski hills could be affected the most, but all of this will depend on how quickly the virus is contained.
Yu said, as with SARS, he expects the economy will rebound quickly, and anticipates the busy summer travel season will help, as long as the outbreak is contained.
More than 31 million non-resident travellers visited sa国际传媒 in 2018, with expected increases in 2019. The U.S. makes up the largest number of non-resident travellers to sa国际传媒, followed by the U.K. and China.
China has been sa国际传媒鈥檚 fastest growing source of tourists for more than a decade, Yu said.
The coronavirus outbreak has not had an impact on retail or events during Chinese New Year, traditionally the most festive time of the year in the Chinese community, according to local officials.
鈥淲e haven鈥檛 heard that any of events [in Richmond] have been cancelled,鈥� said Lesley Chang of Tourism Richmond.
鈥淚t [the coronavirus outbreak] doesn鈥檛 seem to be taking people away from the downtown,鈥� said Charles Gauthier of the Downtown Vancouver Business Improvement Association. 鈥淚t鈥檚 too soon to tell if it will have an impact.鈥�
