Common sense has prevailed in Jordan River. sa国际传媒 Hydro is easing up on plans to buy homes believed to be in danger of washing away if an earthquake causes the Jordan River Diversion Dam to break. Instead of pressuring homeowners to sell, it is offering to buy properties at fair market value whenever they become available. It鈥檚 a measure in proportion to the risk involved.
Hydro鈥檚 change of heart also means the Capital Regional District will reopen the popular beach at Jordan River Regional Park for camping.
Last December, sa国际传媒 Hydro approached 11 homeowners with offers to buy their homes. This came after a six-year study of all 79 Hydro dams in the province showed the Jordan River dam was the most likely to fail in an earthquake.
At Hydro鈥檚 request, the CRD suspended camping at the regional park, which lies in the path of what would be a flood if the dam broke, but left it open for day use.
Both moves were extremely unpopular.
The 38-metre-high dam, an important source of power for the south Island, was built in 1911 and has gone through periodic improvements and upgrades, most recently in the 1990s.
鈥淎s a result, the dam is now one of the more robust dams in sa国际传媒,鈥� says Hydro鈥檚 website.
But a big earthquake could still cause it to fail.
According to guidelines set by the Canadian Dam Association, a dam near permanent residences should be able to withstand an earthquake with a one-in-10,000 chance of occurring.
The magnitude of such an earthquake varies by region depending on seismic activity, but in Jordan River, it would be 鈥渢he Big One鈥� of about magnitude 9. If the homes were vacated, the dam would only have to be able to withstand much smaller earthquakes, with about a one-in-1,000 chance of occurring.
Research shows that massive earthquakes occur on the south coast of sa国际传媒, on average, every 500 or 600 years. The last one occurred in 1700. Experts say there鈥檚 a one-in-10 chance the next big one will strike within the next 50 years.
It has been suggested that sa国际传媒 Hydro should upgrade the Jordan River dam to withstand a megathrust earthquake. That would be prohibitively expensive, if it is even possible.
The Crown corporation decided that rather than upgrade the dam or drastically lower its level, it would be cheaper to buy up the houses that might be affected. That鈥檚 the sort of solution arrived at when you crunch numbers, and it makes sense on paper.
But the homeowners involved see it differently. They would rather stay in their homes and live with the risk. sa国际传媒 Hydro is right to back away from trying to entice them out of their homes.
It鈥檚 difficult deciding what to do to prepare for a disaster that could happen tomorrow or a thousand years from now. There鈥檚 no question that reasonable measures should be taken. That鈥檚 why new buildings are required to conform to certain earthquake-proof standards and why existing buildings are upgraded. That鈥檚 why individuals and families should be prepared for emergency situations with such measures as 72-hour kits and agreed-upon procedures.
We should not ignore risks, but we need to consider the scale of risks and not give in to disproportionate fears. Is a danger possible, probable or imminent? The answer should determine the measures we take in the face of those risks.
We should be prepared, not paranoid.
