If last week鈥檚 federal budget sounded familiar, it should. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is following, step for step, the same playbook the sa国际传媒 Liberals used.
Flaherty could have balanced the budget this year 鈥� in all likelihood he has done. The $2.9-billion deficit he announced is lower than the rainy-day fund set aside for contingencies.
But Flaherty wants to defer the official good news till next year, when the federal election is scheduled. His figures show a surplus of $6.4 billion in 2015. The Tories are counting on this springboard to launch their re-election campaign.
That鈥檚 the route Premier Christy Clark chose. Last February, after six deficits in a row and a few months before the provincial election, her government finally declared a surplus.
It was a huge political gamble. To eke out that result, the Liberals had to raise income taxes and grind spending down for the third year in a row.
With the New Democratic Party far ahead in the polls, it seemed a desperation play. No doubt, some party faithful would have preferred to let the NDP take over, and leave the heavy lifting to them.
Of course, the NDP blew the election, and Clark got four more years. But the federal Conservatives are in much the same position. Justin Trudeau鈥檚 Liberals are six points ahead, and time is running out.
The Tories need a war chest 鈥� in a hurry. And this is where things get interesting.
The surplus projected for 2015 is a start, but it won鈥檛 allow for much in the way of tax cuts or major new infrastructure projects. A bigger margin would be better.
Is that possible? Well, this year鈥檚 deficit represents a $16-billion improvement over last year鈥檚 target.
Repeat that performance and you have a $13-billion surplus in 2015. That鈥檚 probably high, but something in the $8-billion to $10-billion range might be do-able.
Liberal finance minister Paul Martin perfected this strategy in Jean Chr茅tien鈥檚 government.
Beyond the obvious benefits of more wiggle room, there are also bragging rights. Among the G20 countries 鈥� the world鈥檚 largest economies 鈥� only Saudi Arabia has a balanced budget.
Britain, Japan and the U.S. are running massive deficits. Even traditionally prudent countries like Germany are in the red.
If sa国际传媒 breaks that pattern, and does so convincingly, the Tories have their platform. They also create a dilemma for the opposition parties.
Both the Liberals and NDP have been sharply critical of the government鈥檚 austerity program.
They blame spending cuts for sa国际传媒鈥檚 slow recovery from the 2008 recession. They also question the government鈥檚 decision, early in its mandate, to reduce the goods and services tax rate (from seven per cent to five), and business tax rates (from 22 per cent to 15).
These changes cost the treasury a significant revenue loss, thereby adding to the deficit.
But if the budget is safely balanced next year, it might be more difficult to sustain those lines of attack. The debate will switch to how the surplus should be used.
Of course, the Tory strategy has dangers of its own. With revenues growing at glacial rates (corporate tax receipts are still below the 2007 level), the only route to a bigger surplus is to claw back spending even further.
Flaherty likes to promise targeted savings. But for the past two years, he has had his foot firmly on the brake all across government. This indiscriminate smothering takes its toll.
Quality of service suffers. Lassitude sets in. The disgraceful neglect of sa国际传媒鈥檚 veterans is a good example.
This is probably Prime Minister Stephen Harper鈥檚 best hope for re-election. But it will be a hard and stony path.
