With the shock of the sa国际传媒 provincial election results still fresh in the minds of voters, one of sa国际传媒鈥檚 top pollsters is worried that governments will ban surveys during election campaigns.
John Wright, senior vice-president of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, fears that sloppy polling and irresponsible reporting by media outlets will lead to restrictive legislation.
Banning polls would be an unwarranted infringement of our freedoms, but after a series of wildly incorrect surveys, pollsters and reporters must learn from their mistakes. Voters need useful information during elections, and bad polls just make their decisions more difficult.
In May, surveys reported that Christy Clark鈥檚 sa国际传媒 Liberals were headed for defeat at the hands of the New Democratic Party. But on election night, Clark romped to a crushing victory. The polls were similarly wrong in the Quebec and Alberta elections.
The day before this week鈥檚 federal byelections, polling by Forum Research suggested the Liberals had a 29-point lead over the Conservatives in Manitoba鈥檚 Brandon-Souris riding. When the votes were counted, the Conservatives beat the Grits 44.1 per cent to 42.7 per cent.
Pollsters and journalists agonize over the reasons for the inaccuracies, from demographics to the types of phones people use, but some polling still gives solid results. The sa国际传媒 Liberals鈥� own polls, which they did not publicize, predicted that opinion was moving their way.
Banning polls outright is not the answer. More responsibility is the answer.
All of us 鈥� pollsters, media outlets and voters 鈥� must look at election surveys with a more critical eye.
