The latest polls indicate Premier Christy Clark鈥檚 campaign is making some headway and Adrian Dix鈥檚 is slipping from what was once a double-digit lead, as Tuesday鈥檚 voting day draws near.
The latest poll, taken by Oraclepoll Research and commissioned by the sa国际传媒, suggests Dix鈥檚 New Democrats have 41 per cent support among decided voters while Clark鈥檚 sa国际传媒 Liberals have 37.3 per cent.
It鈥檚 the second time in just over a week that a poll has suggested the NDP鈥檚 lead has narrowed significantly. After last week鈥檚 televised leaders鈥� debate, a Forum poll also found a four-percentage-point difference between the two parties.
The picture is murkier when the undecided voters are included. Taking all of those polled, the Oraclepoll survey found 24.3 per cent were undecided, 31 per cent backed the NDP and 28.2 per cent planned to vote for the Liberals. The question looms: What will those undecided voters 鈥� almost a quarter of those polled 鈥� do on election day?
The NDP strategy seemed to depend largely on the belief that the Liberals were their own worst enemies, and as long as the New Democrats didn鈥檛 do anything to alienate voters, the simmering anger over the harmonized sales tax would bring down Clark鈥檚 government. But perhaps the HST has lost some of its negative power.
Dix tried long and hard to avoid making mistakes, but when he finally started releasing policies, little caught the public鈥檚 attention. He announced some program spending, studies and reports, but few policies that stood out.
When he took a firm stand in opposing the Kinder Morgan pipeline, it opened him to accusations he was flip-flopping to snatch votes from the Green party.
While the New Democrats, careful to avoid over-promising, ran a campaign that was short on inspiration, the Liberals attacked relentlessly and Dix did not fight back until late this week. He had resolved to stay away from negative campaigning, but seemed to extend that to not countering the Liberals鈥� negative messages. By inaction, he let those messages dominate the public discussion.
The Liberals continuously linked their attacks with promises of jobs and economic development 鈥� important issues for British Columbians in uncertain economic times.
Voters were mad at the Liberals, but many were not in love with the NDP. As voting day draws closer, fear of the NDP becomes as significant a factor as hatred of the Liberals. Many people are not voting out of love of the New Democrats or Liberals; they see it as choosing the lesser of two evils.
On the major issues of policy, there have been no foolish or implausible claims, no efforts to bribe voters with their own money.
Both the Liberals and New Democrats kept spending promises to a minimum. Given the shaky state of our economy 鈥� resource revenues are still below 2008 levels 鈥� perhaps that was inevitable.
Both are in favour of some limited tax increases, the NDP hikes being somewhat larger. And each says they will balance the budget, the Liberals in 2013, the New Democrats in 2017.
The change in poll results is dramatic, but it does not mean the Liberals have staved off defeat. Popular vote is one thing; winning seats is another. To win seats, parties need votes concentrated in ridings, not spread around the province.
This election is not the walk in the park that the parties and pundits had expected. The Liberals and New Democrats are in a close race, and they will have to go flat out in the last few days of the campaign.
