The low oil prices that are bad news for Alberta could be good news for sa国际传媒, if Premier Christy Clark succeeds in luring British Columbians back home to fill jobs in this province鈥檚 resource industries.
It won鈥檛 be advertising that brings people back, though, but solid jobs, and Clark should be careful not to advertise employment that doesn鈥檛 yet exist.
The drastic decline in the price of oil 鈥� a 50 per cent drop since last summer 鈥� has already caused layoffs in Alberta鈥檚 oil industry, which employs thousands of British Columbians who have moved to Alberta or commute there. While conceding that low oil prices are bad for the Canadian economy, the premier sees an opportunity for sa国际传媒
Speaking in Victoria to the Truck Loggers鈥� Association last week, Clark said the government is considering buying advertising space at the Fort McMurray, Alta., airport, 鈥渨here we can invite British Columbians to come home. And we are prepared to present them with a 鈥榳elcome home鈥� basket to help . 鈥� We will connect them with the information and support they are going to need when they get home to gain the skills to work in forestry or truck logging, or to go work in the natural-gas sector.鈥�
There鈥檚 merit to efforts aimed at attracting workers to sa国际传媒鈥檚 forest industry. The industry began one of the most severe downturns in its history in 2007 as the U.S. housing market declined, lumber prices fell and the Canadian dollar rose. That caused a large exodus of sa国际传媒 workers, particularly to Alberta and its labour-hungry oilpatch.
It was devastating to many of sa国际传媒鈥檚 lumber-dependent communities, and they would welcome the return of jobs and families. The U.S. economy is strengthening, and that means more construction south of the border that uses Canadian lumber, which is made more attractive by the low Canadian dollar.
While prospects are improving for sa国际传媒鈥檚 forestry industries, challenges remain, and one of those is finding enough qualified workers. Even without a substantial increase in markets, the industry faces a wide gap between labour supply and demand.
鈥淚ndustry demand in priority occupations is expected to grow by 26 per cent over the next 10 years, compared to eight per cent growth in occupational supply,鈥� says an October 2013 report prepared for sa国际传媒鈥檚 coastal forest industry. 鈥淪ix of the seven occupations projected to experience the most severe skills gaps over the next 10 years are forestry-specific occupations.鈥�
The main reason for the gap is that the forestry workforce is growing older, and retirements and other attrition will create more than 80 per cent of the job openings. The report projects about 16,000 job openings in the forestry industry through 2022.
The supply of skilled forestry workers is 鈥渋nadequate,鈥� says the report, adding that sa国际传媒鈥檚 industry training and apprenticeship system does not meet workers鈥� needs.
In addition to training, the government should focus on preparing a realistic inventory of sa国际传媒鈥檚 timber supply to ensure the industry can be sustainable. Otherwise, those jobs will eventually disappear, along with our forests.
While unemployed oil workers might be attracted home for forestry jobs, with help from Clark鈥檚 鈥渨elcome basket鈥� of retraining, it鈥檚 hard to see them coming back to prepare for liquefied natural gas jobs, when those jobs don鈥檛 exist.
The same low oil prices that are causing gloom in Alberta have also depressed the LNG market, lowering sa国际传媒鈥檚 prospects in the process. Workers might not be easily lured home to sa国际传媒 for the pot of gold at the end of the LNG rainbow without solid assurances that it is something more than wishful thinking.
