Military leaders like to remind their civilian ministers that no battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy. Perhaps economists should warn politicians that the same is true of government plans.
In 2005, then-premier Gordon Campbell released a strategy for the province titled Towards a Golden Decade for British Columbia. The document exudes a general sense of optimism. For instance: 鈥淚t is a remarkable time for our province. We are going to 鈥� build a bright future for our province, communities and families.鈥�
Campbell also made specific predictions. These include commitments to create more jobs per capita than anywhere else in sa国际传媒, reduce the percentage of the population receiving income assistance, improve our interprovincial standing in personal income and reduce the proportion of taxpayer-supported debt.
Then of course came the battle 鈥� in this case, the 2008 recession. So looking back, how well did the golden decade pan out?
To be fair to Campbell and his planners, their more detailed commitments covered only the subsequent three years. But if we look back from a longer perspective, it鈥檚 clear their expectations for the economy came up short.
The proportion of the working-age population with jobs has fallen, not risen. The percentage of employable people on income assistance is greater, not less.
Among the provinces, we slipped to fourth from third in after-tax family income. And the ratio of taxpayer-supported debt to GDP climbed from 15.8 per cent to 17.4 per cent.
In short, by most economic or financial measures, including many stipulated in the plan, the past 10 years were far from the rosy future we were promised.
They were, in fact, a bust. So much for long-range visions.
Yet there is another side to this story that, at first glance, defies expectations. Among core social programs, the results are much stronger.
In 2001, sa国际传媒 ranked fourth across sa国际传媒 in the percentage of adults with a university degree. Today, despite years of almost flat funding, we stand second.
And remarkably, the Conference Board of sa国际传媒 ranks sa国际传媒 first among the provinces, and third among 17 developed nations, in overall education and skills.
This after school closures, complaints from the teachers鈥� union about underfunding and epic struggles by school boards to live within pared-back budgets.
The same is generally true of our health-care performance. sa国际传媒鈥檚 hospitals have the lowest overhead and treatment costs, countrywide, by a considerable margin.
Yet they have the second-best wait times and the second-best mortality scores. And in a study of cancer-survival rates among six countries and four provinces (sa国际传媒, Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario), sa国际传媒 came out on top. Money, it seems, isn鈥檛 everything.
There鈥檚 another way to look at this decade-long drama. Even the largest provincial governments are almost powerless to shelter their populations from global upheavals like the 2008 recession. The economic tools are not there to counter events on that scale.
Yet safety-net programs, on the whole, have weathered the storm remarkably well, and made good despite limited resources.
Some of this is a credit to Campbell and his successor, Christy Clark. They kept spending under control, showed discipline in the face of hard times and generally rolled with the punches. More credit still is due to the educators, health-care workers and numerous other public servants who worked quietly and effectively behind the scenes.
That is how battles are won. Less by brilliant planning or foresight, and more by resilience and willingness to adjust.
The underlying truth, though, is a reality no government should ignore. It is hubris to predict golden prospects so far into the future, when plans of this sort are so easily undone by events.
