The federal government has delayed a final decision on the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion until June 18. That鈥檚 almost a month past the deadline set by the National Energy Board.
The minister responsible, Amarjeet Sohi, explained that more time was needed to consult with First Nations and M茅tis communities.
That might be so, but there are other reasons to go slow. The government of sa国际传媒 is in court, effectively trying to stop the project on environmental grounds.
Alberta鈥檚 outgoing NDP premier, Rachel Notley, responded with legislation aimed at cutting back the supply of oil to sa国际传媒 The new premier, Jason Kenney is, if anything, even more adamant about 鈥渢urning off the taps.鈥�
And now Quebec has waded into the dispute, with Premier Fran莽ois Legault saying his government opposes any new oil pipelines running through his province. Kenney responded that Quebec has received billions in equalization payments funded by Alberta鈥檚 energy sector, and warned he might seek a referendum on halting such payments.
Until recently, threats to block pipelines would have been written off as unconstitutional. But last year, the Supreme Court of sa国际传媒 muddied the water somewhat.
The court agreed that sa国际传媒鈥檚 Constitution Act does not give provinces unbridled authority to impede the passage of goods across their borders. However, the justices ruled that exceptions might be made if legitimate public-policy objectives were at stake.
Among these exceptions are environmental controls, which is the justification both sa国际传媒 and Quebec have used to bolster their positions.
All of which leaves Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a difficult position. On the one hand, his government has already spent $4.5 billion purchasing the Trans Mountain project. If he decides not to proceed once the consultations are over, that money would have been wasted.
Worse still, there will be fury in Alberta. Trudeau will be accused of surrendering his authority in the face of unprecedented threats.
On the other hand, while the Liberals have 17 MPs in sa国际传媒 and 39 in Quebec, they have only three in Alberta. Dare the prime minister offend the two provinces that, together, gave him his majority in the House of Commons?
And his problems don鈥檛 end there. Nationwide, most Canadians support building the pipeline. Last year, an Ipsos poll found that 56 per cent of respondents favoured the project, while only 24 per cent did not. The rest were undecided.
Even in sa国际传媒, 55 per cent said the pipeline should proceed, with 37 per cent opposed. And in Quebec, 42 per cent were in favour and 36 against.
In effect, opposition to the project is more based on the stance of two provincial governments than on populist sentiment. But as recent elections in sa国际传媒 and the U.S. have shown, going against such sentiment can be a dangerous thing to do.
No doubt if Trudeau decides to proceed, he will anger some politicians in sa国际传媒 and Quebec. But if those opinion-poll results are correct, it might not cost him votes in this fall鈥檚 election.
The prime minister and his party have had a rocky few months. Two ministers resigned over the SNC-Lavalin affair, and were subsequently kicked out of caucus. The aftershocks from that family feud are continuing.
One result is that the Liberals trail both the Conservatives and NDP in opinion polls. And Trudeau鈥檚 own popularity rating has been damaged.
The last thing the prime minister needs now is a no-win confrontation that threatens an even more divisive brawl. Yet realistically, given the stakes in play, that is exactly what he faces.
Whatever choice he makes, that decision will define his premiership. Can he pour water on troubled oil and hold the country together?
The days ahead will answer that question, for good or ill.
