Pauline Marois鈥檚 defeat in Monday鈥檚 Quebec election is blamed on her intent to hold a sovereignty referendum. Yet what else are separatists like the Parti Qu茅b茅cois supposed to stand for?
Marois might have made the mistake of communicating too clearly her intentions. But the more interesting question is why her sales pitch didn鈥檛 work. It nearly did last time, when Jacques Parizeau came within a single percentage point of breaking up the country.
We tend to view election losses as a personal verdict 鈥� in this case on Marois. Yet there is reason to believe the outcome was unaffected by whatever defects the PQ leader might possess.
There have been two sovereignty referendums to date 鈥� in 1980 and 1995. Both occurred at points that were unique in Quebec鈥檚 demographic history.
The peak of the Baby Boom reached voting age between 1976 and 1980. It is perhaps no accident that Ren茅 L茅vesque led the PQ to its first election victory in 1976 and chose 1980 as the moment for a referendum. Young voters are often more heated in their passions and more ready to join an idealistic cause.
Similarly, following the 1970s youthful surge, Quebec experienced a strong echo of the Baby Boom in 1995. On both of these occasions, the population trended younger than in any previous period in the province鈥檚 history 鈥� or any period since.
Today, as in the rest of sa国际传媒, Quebecers are growing older and, with age, more cautious. Health care, pensions and a peaceful retirement are their concerns. Blowing up the country does not seem to advance those interests.
