Some come back, but many do not, and we pay a high price for their loss. No society can flourish when its best and brightest get up and leave.
But with foresight and vision, that picture could be radically altered. Last month, work started on three major construction projects up-Island.
To cost $1.1 billion, a complete refit of the John Hart hydroelectric power station near Campbell River got underway. And ground was broken for two new hospitals 鈥� in Comox and Campbell River 鈥� with a combined price tag of $600 million. Properly supported, these projects have enough financial muscle to rebuild the economy of central Vancouver Island.
What does 鈥減roperly supported鈥� mean?
Estimates vary, but every $1 million in capital spending creates about 18 jobs. That figure includes direct employment at the construction site, plus spinoffs in the service and manufacturing sectors.
By no means will all these jobs be permanent; some will be temporary or part-time. And 鈥渓eakage鈥� is bound to occur when high-tech installations such as turbines are purchased offshore.
Nevertheless, over the short and medium term, a combined outlay of $1.7 billion should produce at least 20,000 jobs in surrounding communities. That would be a huge lift for the Island economy.
However, there鈥檚 a catch. We get full benefit from these jobs only if there are qualified, local workers available.
But in 2016, for the first time, fewer young British Columbians will be entering the workforce than older employees leaving it. That shortfall will arrive at the worst possible moment.
And producing enough skilled electricians, welders and plumbers will be a major challenge. It鈥檚 here that the foresight and vision come in.
The provincial government has identified 20 critical trades where additional recruits will be needed. About 400 new training seats are being funded at Camosun College in Victoria and Vancouver Island University in Nanaimo.
Is that sufficient to handle the demand? Given the shortage of instructors and limits on classroom space, it鈥檚 a good first step.
But some broader thinking is required. There is also talk of building a container port near Bamfield and perhaps a liquefied natural gas export facility in Alberni.
Whether these schemes come to fruition is anyone鈥檚 guess. But government agencies are forecasting the creation of one million new jobs provincewide over the next decade. If even half of those materialize, our training institutes will be overwhelmed.
At a minimum, we need a much larger commitment of resources to get the job done. However, we need a change in mindsets as well.
For decades, our education system has steered kids toward university as the route to success. That usually meant a white-collar job. The trades, with their 鈥渂lue collar鈥� stigma, were a second-best option.
But as technologies such as robotics, 3-D printing and computerized instrumentation transform the workplace, that distinction has largely disappeared.
In effect, blue collar has become white collar, and it shows in the paycheque. The starting salary for a BA honours student, after four years at university, is about $50,000.
A heavy-duty equipment mechanic, with four years of class work and apprenticeship, can make $80,000 at the John Hart power station. And the fees are a fraction of university tuition.
We need to get our minds around this turnabout, in a hurry. The trades can rescue our Island economy, but only if the opportunity is grasped.
For kids who left high school in June, that鈥檚 something for serious thought.
