So Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has announced he will be stepping down as soon as a successor is chosen.
Kenney had been forced into a leadership review by disgruntled members of his party, and though he won, he deemed his bare majority — 51.4 per cent of the vote — insufficient to allow him to stay on.
That in itself was a surprise. Just days before, he had said 50 per cent plus one would be good enough to carry on.
What changed his mind is uncertain, though most likely it was the realization that managing an already fractious caucus would be, in the circumstances, well nigh impossible.
That the next provincial election is now but a year away may also have played a part in his thinking. If so, he did the honourable thing, sacrificing his career to give his party a better shot at staying in office.
How realistic that shot may be, however, is another matter. Kenney was undone by the right-wingers in his caucus who are consumed with doctrinal absolutism.
In this view of the world, Kenney had proved to be too much of a centrist to retain the reins of power. Worse still, during the COVID crisis he listened to public health experts, a group of incorrigible busybodies in the eyes of the party’s rural members.
The hard truth is this crew would rather go down to stinging defeat than face reality. After all, they’ve done it twice before.
First time out, they created the Reform Party, broke apart the national Conservative movement, and handed the federal Liberals four elections in a row.
Unabashed, they followed that act of idiocy by siccing the Wild Rose Alliance on an unsuspecting public, wrecked the small-c conservative dynasty that had ruled Alberta for 70 years, and elected Rachel Notley’s NDP government.
Part of the problem is that with the exception of Ralph Klein — more on that in a moment — the provincial Tories have elected one weak leader after another since the Blue Eyed Sheik, Peter Lougheed, last held office.
Kenney, Jim Prentice, Dave Hancock (for six months), Ed Stelmach and Don Getty were all decent enough men in their own way. But none had the iron hand required to rule a wayward caucus.
Only Klein could impose the discipline needed by his party. He managed this, despite being a habitual drunk and nastier still when sober, because his rough-at-the-edges personality actually appealed to voters. They felt a degree of connection with him that overcame dislike of his at times harsh policies.
While time will tell, none of the known competitors for Kenney’s job look anything like strong enough to hold the party together through the hard times that lie ahead.
The two leading contenders, Danielle Smith and Brian Jean, are both past leaders of the Wild Rose heresy, scarcely a unifying presence.
And while both are strong fiscal conservatives, which will unite the right, neither appears likely to warm the hearts of moderates in vote-rich centres like Calgary and Edmonton.
What we can say, with confidence, is that the next 12 months in Alberta will be anything but tranquil. The winds of change are starting to look more like a category 5 hurricane.
