PHILADELPHIA 鈥� After getting off to a precocious start, with a tropical storm and two hurricanes already on its resum茅 by July 8, the Atlantic hurricane season has been on hiatus.
And that might bode well for residents and property owners along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, as well as U.S. taxpayers.
During last year鈥檚 historically active, ferocious and deadly season, Harvey and Irma alone caused close to $200 billion US in damages, according to ICAT, the catastrophe insurance concern.
But the atmosphere is sending strong signals that this season won鈥檛 be nearly as active in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, and might even finish below average in terms of hurricane numbers.
Last year saw the development of 17 named storms 鈥� those with winds of at least 62 km/h 鈥� and 10 hurricanes, winds of 120 km/h or better. The long-term seasonal averages are 11 named storms, and six hurricanes.
This season鈥檚 brisk start evidently wasn鈥檛 a harbinger, however.
The storm traffic for the rest of the season, which ends officially on Nov. 30, won鈥檛 be nearly as robust, Philip Klotzbach, hurricane specialist at Colorado State University, which pioneered long-range tropical storm forecasting, said in an interview.
Colorado State predicts just three hurricanes for the remainder of the season, which would be half of normal: On average, all hurricanes occur after the first week of August.
Klotzbach鈥檚 reasoning should provide some comfort to Floridians and others with coastal interests.
鈥淭he tropical Atlantic remains anomalously cool,鈥� he said in his updated outlook, and it has been 鈥渧ery dry.鈥� Also, shearing winds from the west have been 鈥渜uite strong鈥� during the past month across the Caribbean. Those winds can rip apart burgeoning tropical storms.
What鈥檚 more, an El Ni帽o, an anomalous warming in the tropical Pacific, is likely to develop, the Climate Prediction Center says, and that warming typically generates strong winds from the west that could add to the shearing.
But even if El Ni帽o fizzles, said Klotzbach, 鈥渨e believe that the hurricane-unfavourable conditions in the Atlantic are likely to persist over the next several months.鈥�
No complaints have been reported from Florida.
