The question always rides the crest of 鈥渨ave season,鈥� as cruise agents and cruise lines both like to call this promotional period that runs from January to March. While sales are now more prevalent year-round than they used to be, this is when most cruisers are booking for 2013 and beyond.
Anecdotal industry evidence indicates a stronger booking pattern than one year ago. Stronger bookings mean prices are holding. Now that鈥檚 not a blanket application, and there will be pockets with specials, but fewer of them than last year.
Cruise lines are taking more of an 鈥渁nything but price reduction鈥� approach, adding perks such as upgrades, onboard credits, discounted shore excursions and 鈥� for a few departures on some river cruise lines 鈥� two-for-one offerings.
In other words, they鈥檙e wooing you with everything except discounted fares.
They can change plans on a whim. Witness Royal Caribbean. One of the largest 2012 deployments to Europe by a North American-based line was reduced by 25 per cent when the decision-makers in Royal Caribbean鈥檚 office sent three of its 12 ships from Europe to other markets.
In terms of guaranteeing fares, Carnival has an interesting approach. There is nothing worse than sitting on the pool deck and finding out the guy on the lounger next to you paid $300 less for the same type of balcony cabin. Carnival鈥檚 Early Saver Fare guarantees the (category鈥檚) lowest fare by the cruise line, and that could start a trend with others in convincing you to book early.
Here鈥檚 how the Early Saver program works:
When you book a three-to-five-day cruise three months in advance, or six-day (or longer) cruise five months in advance, you are guaranteed the lowest rate with a cabin assignment. There is one asterisk. The onus is on you (or your cruise agent) to find a lower Carnival-advertised rate. If you do, Carnival will honour the lower rate, but you have to initiate the process by applying for it.
If you decide to wait, even if you鈥檙e using an agent, spend some time looking on the cruise line websites for special offerings that still give you enough time to plan your trip. It took me about 30 seconds to find a special at royalcaribbean.com.
It鈥檚 an inside cabin for a 14-night Transatlantic cruise that leaves San Juan, Puerto Rico, on April 21 for Southampton (London). The price is $459, less than $33 a day. No, you don鈥檛 get a sleeping bag on the deck 鈥� the price includes your cabin, meals and entertainment. Between San Juan and Southampton, you will stop in St. Lucia, St. Thomas, St. Maarten, St. Kitts and the Azores.
It was available at time of writing and is based on per-person, double occupancy and does not include fees and taxes. By time you read this, it may be gone, but others will take their place.
Looking back at this column, I feel like a politician who hasn鈥檛 fully answered your question. Maybe it's because there isn鈥檛 a yes or no answer to the question.
So far, cruise travel agents are better off than they were when booking for 2012 last January, so it seems the trend among cruisers is to book earlier. Most analysts are calling for a modest gain this year. However, one hiccup in the economy is what we call a game changer.
