LONDON 鈥� Tourists, exchange students, masters of the financial universe and other business travellers: It鈥檚 time to buckle up.
More pollution is likely to mean bumpier flights for trans-Atlantic travellers, researchers say, predicting increased turbulence over the North Atlantic as carbon dioxide levels rise.
University of East Anglia climate expert Manoj Joshi said scientists have long studied the impact of the carbon-heavy aviation industry on climate change, but he took a new tack.
鈥淲e looked at the effect of climate change on aviation,鈥� he said.
In a paper published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, Joshi and colleague Paul Williams ran a climate simulation that cranked up the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to twice its pre-industrial level 鈥� roughly 50 per cent more than now. Williams said they ran a series of turbulence-predicting algorithms for the North Atlantic winter period and compared the results to pre-industrial rates.
Queasy fliers need read no further.
Williams said the results showed a 10-to-40 per cent increase in the median strength of turbulence and a 40-to-170 per cent increase in the frequency of moderate-or-greater turbulence. He described the latter as shaking that is 鈥渟trong enough to force the pilot to switch on the seat-belt sign, knock over drinks, and make it difficult to walk.鈥�
The explanation is that some models predict that global warming will draw the jet stream further north, creating more of the vertical wind shear that causes turbulence.
Joshi said choppier skies might prompt pilots to reroute their flights. But the North Atlantic is a busy place for air travel, with an average of 960 flights a day last week, according to aviation data companies masFlight and OAG. Pilots interviewed by The Associated Press said that 鈥� in such a crowded air corridor 鈥� planes were just as likely to simply power through.
鈥淵ou just got to grin and bear it,鈥� said Steven Draper, a retired airline pilot and a spokesman for the British Airline Pilots Association. Although there鈥檚 no clear evidence of rougher skies just yet, Draper did say he saw worse weather near the end of his career.
鈥淢y experience was that they were increasing in intensity and frequency,鈥� he said.
Academics who weren鈥檛 involved in the research praised it.
University of Birmingham climatologist Gregor Leckebush said there weren鈥檛 any substantial holes that he could see, although he did note that it relied on a single climate model.
Rob MacKenzie, a professor of atmospheric science at Birmingham, said additional models might have refined the researchers鈥� results but their overall conclusion 鈥� 鈥渁 really neat piece of work鈥� 鈥� was not in doubt.
The aviation industry is the world鈥檚 fastest-growing source of carbon dioxide emissions, a major factor in human-driven climate change. Solutions including plant-based jet fuels and carbon offsets have been considered, but politicians, aviation companies and international travellers have so far failed to significantly blunt the environmental impact of air travel.
Werner Krauss, a social anthropologist and the author of 鈥淭he Climate Trap,鈥� said he doubted that the prospect of a more turbulent New York-to-London flight would jolt anyone into action.
鈥淔or decades now, environmentalists and climate scientists (have confronted) us on an almost daily basis with doom scenarios,鈥� said Krauss. 鈥淒o people still listen? I am not sure, and I am afraid bumpy air travel ... won鈥檛 come as a shock.鈥�
17:52ET 10-04-13
