It's not what you know, but who you know that is likely to be the key to victory in Victoria's upcoming council byelection.
Local political watchers say an expected low turnout means the candidate with the best-oiled machine will poll most votes among the 11-strong field.
"Turnout has become problematic everywhere, but it's always been problematic at the municipal level and particularly for a byelection, so people will have to fall back on their own networks," said Norman Ruff, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Victoria.
Only 27 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots in 2008, up slightly from 2005 when 26.4 per cent turned out, but down considerably from 2005 when 33.3 per cent voted. Victoria has about 64,000 people eligible to vote.
Residents will vote Nov. 20 on who will replace Sonya Chandler, who retired from council with a year left in her term to pursue her education in Europe. The byelection is being held in conjunction with a referendum on whether the city should be allowed to borrow $49.2 million toward replacement of the Johnson Street Bridge.
Rob Reid, a business owner who came a close second to Mayor Dean Fortin in the last mayoral race, said: "If you've got a strong organizing team that can get the vote out, that will be key."
To be successful, candidates need strong community networks -- perhaps through sports or community associations -- that don't necessarily need to be political, Ruff said. But there was no denying Victoria civic elections were increasingly taking on a large "P" political edge, he added.
Candidate Marianne Alto, a small business owner, is also president of the Victoria federal NDP riding association (although on leave during the campaign) and last year sought the provincial NDP nomination for Oak Bay-Gordon Head.
Alto, who nearly won a council seat in 2005 when she ran for the Victoria Civic Electors, the former NDP municipal farm team, cites homelessness, addiction, housing, mental illness and the cost of living as among the top five issues facing Victoria. She says that, as a small business person, she can bring a unique perspective to council. "I think that's a particularly important voice to bring to council that I don't think is there," she said. Still, Alto is proud of her New Democrat heritage.
She will face strong competition from Barry Hobbis, general manager of Victoria Harbour Ferries, whose campaign is being managed by Mat Wright, one of the directors of johnsonstreetbridge.org, the group that led the successful counter-petition drive that forced the bridge borrowing referendum.
It's an election battle not unlike the last mayoralty race between business owner Reid and the heavily favoured Fortin, a longtime New Democrat.
Hobbis sees the major issue to be fiscal responsibility. "It should be about the fact the city doesn't print or own money," he said. "I'd like to see a time- out on a number of issues and take a look at the economic conditions. Is this the best time to be bleeding money?"
The Green party is represented by Steve Filipovic, who drew 1,411 votes (8.38 per cent of those cast) when he ran for mayor in 2008.
Filipovic says he's a logical alternative to either Alto or Hobbis who have "big money" behind them.
"One of those two probably will be elected," he said. "The only chance I have is if people realize that spending $100 million on something [the Johnson Street Bridge] that can be fixed for $8.6 million is worth coming out to vote for."
Coun. Chris Coleman, a veteran of almost a dozen municipal campaigns, including a byelection in which he ran and lost, says the successful candidate will be the one who keeps his or her eyes on the job ahead and remembers the winner has to work with the existing council.
"It's easy to get captured into the scenario of we don't like the present council or we do like the present council and what's lost is: What do we need to move forward and better the community we have," Coleman said.
That message is apparently lost on Filipovic, who says the current council has been paying only token attention to issues of housing affordability and homelessness, but is willing to spend millions on an "invented" problem like the bridge.
A dark horse may be poverty activist Rose Henry who, in the last municipal election, placed 11th with 3,372 votes but out-polled all of the candidates in the running again this time around, including Hobbis, who placed 15th with 2,962 votes.
"I figure that, after 25 years, the social issues are still the same and so is Rose," Henry said.
She acknowledged, however, that her strong support among the street population is difficult to translate into votes.
"I keep hearing from people that I'm representing a body of people who don't normally participate in elections," she said.
Setting fixed terms for municipal politicians is one of the goals of candidate Susan Woods, a magazine publisher and former broadcast journalist, who got 2,798 votes in the last municipal election. "That's one of the things I think needs to be talked about."
She opposes borrowing for the bridge because, she says, there are other infrastructure needs that have to be dealt with as well.
Hugh Kruzel, a Pandora Avenue resident who managed to attract 107 votes in 2008 when he ran for mayor says one of the issues should be about residency.
"Let's ask the question: Where do you put your head down? Where's your pillow? What community do you live in?" he says in a comment aimed directly at Hobbis, a Saanich resident.
For his part, Hobbis says it doesn't matter. "I have 14 business licences and 63 people that I employ, quite a few of whom live downtown. So I think I'm as qualified as anybody."
Rounding out the byelection field are:
- Saul Anderson, a cab driver, who has run for office at every level of government and attracted 172 votes (1.02 per cent) when he ran for mayor in 2008. If elected, Anderson believes he could promote more co-ops or "community minded initiatives" such as community farming.
- Paul Brown, a partner in a knowledge-based firm, says he wants more transparency and fiscal responsibility around infrastructure.
"There needs to be a strong voice on council, accountable, transparent, particularly where open debate, due diligence and respect for all opinions is proffered," he said. "l'm, like a lot of people, very disappointed on what transpired around the Blue Bridge."
- On his website, George Sirk, a naturalist-guide, promises to be honest, truthful, caring and compassionate, and "to consider the needs of birds, butterflies, bees and pets as well as people in every decision."
- Rimas Tumasonis, who is retired from the film industry, wants dogs allowed on buses and a better relationship between the police and citizens. "The police should not be seen as being apart from us -- they are part of us just like government," Tumasonis said.
- Pedro Mora, a retired broadcaster who advocates direct democracy, has gained notoriety by admitting he pleaded guilty 10 years ago to sexually molesting a 15-year-old girl.
