LONDON (AP) 鈥� The Bank of England rolled out its biggest interest rate increase in three decades Thursday, saying the move was needed to beat back stubbornly and is likely to trigger a 鈥減rolonged鈥� recession.
The central bank boosted its key rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, to 3%, as has driven up food and energy costs, pushing consumer price . The aggressive step was expected after a more cautious half-point increase six weeks ago and matches the and the .
While higher interest rates will boost the and credit card debt for already-stretched consumers, the move was necessary to control and is slowing economic activity, Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey said.
鈥淚f we do not act forcefully now, it will be worse later on,鈥� Bailey told reporters, hinting he'd be prepared for more increases ahead.
The bank, whose task got tougher after former Prime Minister Liz , forecast that the British economy is likely to contract for two years through June 2024. That would be the longest recession since at least 1955, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The rate increase is the Bank of England鈥檚 eighth in a row and the biggest since 1992. It comes a day after the announced a fourth consecutive three-quarter point jump.
Central banks worldwide have struggled to contain inflation after initially believing price increases were fueled by international factors beyond their control. Their response has intensified in recent months as it became clear that , feeding through into higher borrowing costs and demands for higher wages.
Thursday鈥檚 rate decision was the first since Truss鈥� government announced 45 billion pounds ($52 billion) of , which sent the , pushed up mortgage costs and .
While , the fallout remains: Borrowing costs are higher for the government, companies and homeowners because of concerns about economic and political stability in Britain, the bank said.
Truss鈥� successor, , has warned of spending cuts and tax increases as he seeks to undo the damage and show that Britain is committed to paying its bills. Sunak and Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt plan to reveal their economic plan on Nov. 17.
鈥淭he most important thing the British government can do right now is to restore stability, sort out our public finances, and get debt falling so that interest rate rises are kept as low as possible,鈥� Hunt said.
The Bank of England expects inflation to peak at around 11% in the last three months of the year, up from 10.1% in September. Inflation should begin to slow next year, dropping below the 2% target within two years, the bank said.
The squeeze on people's incomes likely contributed to a 0.5% decline in gross domestic product in the three months through September, which may be followed by a 0.3% drop in the fourth quarter, according to the bank鈥檚 forecast.
The projections are based on financial market data suggesting the key interest rate will rise to 5.25% by the third quarter of next year. The bank鈥檚 survey of financial professionals forecasts a lower peak of 4.5%, which would shorten the recession.
Bailey said there is uncertainty about how far and how fast the bank will boost interest rates because of and the country's tight labor market.
The worldwide as shipments of natural gas, and were disrupted. That added to inflation that began to accelerate when the global economy began to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Europe has been particularly hard hit by a jump in natural gas prices as Russia responded to Western sanctions and support for Ukraine by used to heat homes, generate electricity and power industry and European nations competed for alternative supplies on global markets.
Wholesale gas prices in the U.K. increased fivefold in the 12 months through August. While prices have dropped more than 50% since the August peak, they are likely to rise again during the winter heating season.
The British government sought to shield consumers by that are fueling inflation. After , Hunt limited the price cap to six months instead of two years, saying the program would be focused on only the neediest households beginning in April.
That injected another degree of uncertainty into the bank鈥檚 inflation forecasts.
But the economy will recover, Bailey said.
鈥淲e cannot pretend to know what will happen to gas prices. That depends on the war in Ukraine,鈥欌�� Bailey said. 鈥淏ut from where we stand now, we think inflation will begin to fall back from the middle of next year, probably quite sharply. To make sure that happens, bank rate may have to go up further over the coming months.''
Danica Kirka, The Associated Press
