WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥� The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate Wednesday for the 11th time in 17 months as part of its ongoing drive to curb inflation. But it provided little guidance about when 鈥� or whether 鈥� it might hike rates again.
Wednesday's move raised the Fed鈥檚 benchmark short-term rate from roughly 5.1% to 5.3% 鈥� its highest level since 2001. Coming on top of its previous hikes, the Fed鈥檚 latest action could lead to further increases in the costs of and business borrowing.
Speaking at a news conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was noncommittal about any expectations for future rate hikes. Since it began raising rates in March 2022, the Fed has often telegraphed its upcoming action. This time, though, Powell said the Fed's policymakers may or may not raise rates again at their next meeting in September.
鈥淚t is certainly possible that we will raise rates again at the September meeting,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nd I would also say it鈥檚 possible that we would choose to hold steady at that meeting.鈥�
Powell sent a mixed message about whether he thinks the Fed will eventually need to further raise rates or instead just keep the current level of rates in place for a prolonged period.
鈥淚t was about as clear as mud, and I think that was the point," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at accounting giant KPMG. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 want to declare victory too soon. They know inflation moves in fits and starts.鈥�
Powell acknowledged that the economy has proved surprisingly resilient despite the Fed's rapid rate hikes, with growth continuing and . He also revealed that the Fed鈥檚 staff economists no longer foresee a recession. In April, the had said that staff economists envisioned a 鈥渕ild鈥� recession later this year.
And he said he still thinks that a 鈥渟oft landing鈥� 鈥� in which inflation would fall back to the Fed's 2% target, without causing a deep recession 鈥� is still possible.
鈥淢y base case is that we will be able to achieve inflation moving back down to our target without the kind of really significant downturn that results in high levels of job losses,鈥� the Fed chair said. 鈥淲e do have a shot at a soft landing.鈥�
Though inflation has reached its slowest pace in two years, Wednesday鈥檚 hike reflects the concern of Fed officials that the economy is still growing too fast for inflation to fall back to their 2% target. With hitting its highest level in two years, Americans keep spending 鈥� , and flocking to and . Most crucially, businesses .
Year-over-year inflation in June , according to the government, down sharply from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Yet a 鈥渃ore鈥� inflation measure that is preferred by the Fed, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, from a year earlier.
Powell said he welcomed, in particular, a milder-than-expected report on inflation for June. But he said additional such data would be needed to show that inflation is declining in a sustained way.
鈥淲e鈥檙e going to be careful about taking too much signal from a single reading,鈥� he said.
The key question swirling around the Fed is whether Wednesday鈥檚 increase will or won鈥檛 be its last. Powell made clear that the fight against inflation isn鈥檛 over. The Fed鈥檚 rate hikes, he said, have 鈥渘ot been restrictive enough for long enough鈥� to exert their full effect.
鈥淲e want core inflation to be coming down,鈥� Powell said. "Core inflation is still pretty elevated. And so we think we need to stay on task.鈥�
He stressed that the Fed's policymakers will assess a range of incoming economic data in determining what action, if any, to take at their next meeting. When the officials last met in June, they signaled that they expected to raise rates twice more. By the time they meet again Sept. 19-20, Powell noted, they will have much more data in hand: Two more inflation reports, two reports on hiring and unemployment and updated figures on consumer spending and wages.
Some economists think the Fed might decide to forgo a rate increase in September before weighing a possible hike at its meeting in November.
In recent weeks, several Fed officials have said they worry that the still-brisk pace of job growth will lead workers to demand higher pay to make up for two years of inflationary prices. Sharp wage gains can perpetuate inflation if companies respond by raising prices for their customers.
At the same time, the steady easing of inflation pressures has bring down inflation without a recession.
Durable consumer spending has been a key driver of growth. Many Americans still have savings stemming from the pandemic, when the government distributed stimulus checks and people saved by spending less on travel, restaurants and entertainment.
And hiring has remained healthy, with employers having added 209,000 jobs in June and the jobless rate reaching an ultra-low 3.6%. That鈥檚 about where it was when the Fed began raising rates in March 2022 鈥� a sign of economic resilience that almost no one had foreseen.
Some Fed officials, including Christopher Waller, an outspoken member of its Board of Governors, and Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, have said they think the cumulative effects of the previous rate hikes have already been baked into the economy. With inflation still above the Fed鈥檚 target, they think additional hikes may be needed to further slow price pressures.
Some analysts caution that the drop in year-over-year inflation from roughly 9% to 3% was the relatively easy part. Getting it down to the Fed鈥檚 2% target will be harder and take longer.
Other experts say they think the recent mild inflation readings can be sustained. Rental cost increases, which have already fallen, should drop further as more apartment buildings are completed.
Though the Fed began tightening credit before central banks in many other developed countries did, most others are now following suit. The European Central Bank is expected to announce its own quarter-point rate hike on Thursday. Though in the 20 countries that use the euro, it remains higher there than in the United States.
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policies unchanged when it meets next week even though after roughly two decades of declining prices. The Bank of England has been among the most aggressive in Europe, having to a 15-year high of 5%. Year-over-year inflation in the U.K. reached a painful 8.7% in May.
Christopher Rugaber, The Associated Press
