MONTREAL 鈥� Ten years ago, Jean-Fran莽ois Lis茅e predicted that Quebec鈥檚 independence movement would be reborn.
鈥淚t could rise again given the right circumstances,鈥� he said in 2015. 鈥淲hat could trigger it, I cannot say."
Three years later, as leader of the sovereigntist Parti Qu茅b茅cois, Lis茅e lost his riding and saw his party reduced to 10 seats when the upstart Coalition Avenir Qu茅bec, led by Fran莽ois Legault, swept to power for the first time.
The 2018 election was widely seen as proof that separatism was no longer a defining issue in Quebec politics, and pollsters speculated that the PQ鈥檚 days were numbered. The province鈥檚 new leader was a former sovereigntist at the helm of a conservative-leaning, nationalist party promising not to hold a referendum, and Quebecers rewarded him with a decisive majority.
鈥淭here are many Quebecers who put aside a debate that has divided us for 50 years,鈥� Legault said after his victory.
Now, on the eve of the 30th anniversary of Quebec鈥檚 second independence referendum 鈥� the first one was in 1980 鈥� it seems the tide could be turning again. Legault is deeply unpopular after six years in power, and the Parti Qu茅b茅cois, with a young, charismatic leader, has been ahead in the polls for more than a year.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the party, which is promising to hold a third referendum by 2030, can breathe new life into the province鈥檚 aging independence movement.
If an election were held today, polls suggest the Parti Qu茅b茅cois would easily win a majority. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, an Oxford-educated 47-year-old, has injected youthful energy into a party on the verge of extinction.
脡mile Simard, leader of the PQ鈥檚 youth wing, believes the party鈥檚 popularity will renew the appetite for independence in Quebec. He grew up in a sovereigntist family in the Saguenay鈥擫ac-Saint-Jean region, and took out his membership card when he turned 16.
Now 22, he says the reasons for independence have changed somewhat since the 1995 referendum, when the 鈥淣o鈥� campaign eked out a win. He pointed to climate change in particular.
鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 make sense that as Quebecers we contribute several billion dollars every year through our taxes, and then we鈥檙e going to invest massively in Alberta鈥檚 fossil fuels,鈥� he said.
But surveys suggest the PQ鈥檚 ascendancy has not yet boosted support for independence, which has hovered around 35 per cent for years.
鈥淥ne of the major weaknesses of the independence movement in Quebec is the fact that it鈥檚 not resonating in the younger generation,鈥� said David Heurtel, political analyst and former Quebec Liberal minister.
鈥淚ndependence in Quebec, back in the '60s, '70s, the '80s, even in '95, it was the hip, younger generation thing,鈥� he said. 鈥淵ou鈥檙e not seeing that today.鈥�
Simard wasn鈥檛 born until years after the 1995 referendum. In fact, he pointed out, no Quebecer under the age of 47 has ever cast a vote on independence. He believes young people say they support the status quo because they鈥檝e never seriously considered an alternative.
鈥淔or them it remains a hypothetical debate,鈥� he said.
Simard said a referendum campaign would force young people to think more deeply about the question. 鈥淭o me, it鈥檚 obvious that we should give ourselves the opportunity to decide on this issue,鈥� he said.
Though young Quebecers aren鈥檛 especially sovereigntist, they鈥檙e also not particularly federalist, said Charles Breton, executive director of the Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation at the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
鈥淭hey just don鈥檛 know, and part of it is because that鈥檚 not a question that we鈥檝e been talking about,鈥� he said.
Breton worries that if a new independence movement does take hold, many Canadians might respond with a shrug. In 1995, an estimated 100,000 people gathered for the unity rally in Montreal to urge Quebecers to vote "No."
But this time, Breton said, 鈥淲ho would be leading the 'No' team in Quebec and who would be the voice in the rest of sa国际传媒 to try to keep Quebec in?鈥�
The prospect of a federal Conservative government looms large over any conversation about Quebec independence. Heurtel said a change in Ottawa could hurt the PQ鈥檚 prospects, since Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre favours a more hands-off approach to the provinces.
鈥淧oilievre is not going to be the same type of nemesis for nationalists and sovereigntists to exploit, whereas (Prime Minister Justin) Trudeau is a much better target,鈥� he said.
But Simard said a Conservative government in Ottawa coupled with a Trump administration south of the border could drive home the idea that Quebec is better off alone.
鈥淚s this the kind of sa国际传媒 that interests us, a sa国际传媒 where values like the environment 鈥� are set aside?鈥� he said.
Breton said it鈥檚 hard to imagine Poilievre, who remains unpopular in Quebec, as the point man for unity during a third referendum campaign. Trudeau is better suited to that job, he said.
He鈥檚 not the only one who thinks so. Eddie Goldenberg, chief of staff to former prime minister Jean Chr茅tien, wrote an op-ed in October calling on Trudeau to step down as prime minister and prepare 鈥渢o take a leading role in speaking up for sa国际传媒 in a possible Quebec independence referendum.鈥�
As it stands, the sovereigntist Bloc Qu茅b茅cois could well form the official Opposition for the first time since 1993 in this year鈥檚 federal election, which seems likely to decimate the Liberals. The addition of a PQ victory in 2026 could give the independence movement more clout than it has had in decades.
It鈥檚 possible, however, that the PQ could face a challenge from the provincial Liberals, who will kick off a leadership race this month. Pablo Rodriguez, a former minister in the Trudeau government, is seen as a front-runner.
Heurtel said the PQ is partly just 鈥渁 parking lot for opposition鈥� to the government, and that could change with a new Quebec Liberal leader. He also pointed out that many federal Liberal staffers might soon be looking for jobs, and could help 鈥渞ebuild and reorganize鈥� the provincial party.
For now, Breton said, independence is still 鈥渘ot the main thing that people care about.鈥� But it seems the next Quebec election could once again be fought over the same old question that was set aside back in 2018.
鈥淚鈥檓 confident that a referendum is coming and that the population is ready,鈥� Simard said. 鈥淚 think it鈥檚 time to write the end of this chapter in Quebec.鈥�
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 4, 2025.
Maura Forrest, The Canadian Press
