The recent letter “Cruise ships vital to Victoria’s economy” raises the vital question of how do we see Victoria’s labour market developing in the coming years, let alone decades, and plan for it — rather than passively bemoaning our fate?
The jobs highlighted in the letter are, generally, either small-scale, skilled (pilotage, tug operators, stevedores, drivers) or larger-scale, lower wage (tourist support). Neither provides the 21st-century growth opportunities that are needed.
To the layperson, including my better-educated and informed friends, there appears to be little, if any, governmental concept of the necessity for guided adaptation to a changing economic and demographic environment that threatens the status quo and was foreseen many years ago.
The effects of the changes have been compounded by a lack of housing planning that provides affordable housing for the labour force (rather than basking in appreciating house prices) and, recently, the effect of COVID upon workers’ employment choices.
The letter implies, for one industry, a continuation of the status quo that may be totally unsustainable and an approach that is at odds with the reality of the overall workforce.
We have known for 50 years that the late 2010s and the 2020s would result in a shrinking labour force cohort as baby boomers retire and the larger Millennial generation has been absorbed into the workforce.
Even with immigration — which does not easily replace the retiring boomers’ decades of on-the-job skills — the Canadian working-age group is now down to about 65 per cent of the population and is steadily declining; Victoria’s position is worse.
In Victoria, unaffordable housing is restricting mobility — even 10 years ago, when working for the provincial government, fellow employees outside Victoria bemoaned that they could not afford a promotion and transfer here — or to Vancouver (thus lessening the availability of skillsets here).
This also results in a dearth of lower-wage employees, except for students (who are generally transient and short-term until graduation) when even high-skill, well-paid workers find difficulty.
The various sectors of the labour market are seeing different issues. Many skilled trades have significant retirements underway, or looming, with most requiring extensive training and certification. Many jobs are now considered less desirable and/or less secure. Overzealous barriers to entry (the proverbial immigrant doctor driving a cab) discourage full use of existing skills.
So, what can we do? It appears that there are three issues — housing, job “desirability” and skillsets.
“Affordable housing” requires more than lip service. It requires higher density, for which some start has been made, and revival of former co-op and rent-to-own approaches, with government subsidies if necessary (my baby boomer generation has refused to pay its way for 50 years and the chickens are coming home to roost).
Like it or not, the single-family dwelling on a large lot is history. Approval processes must be streamlined, fast and automatic where feasible — some progress has been made here.
For job desirability, we need to recognize that many jobs are no longer wanted except as a last resort or may not be stable in a volatile environment. Can we afford a repeat of COVID layoffs? Do we really want to emphasize industries, such as tourism, that are vulnerable to pandemics and recession and are generally lower-paying than is necessary for life in Victoria, even with affordable housing?
Should government tax people living below the poverty line? That seems counterproductive.
The educational system, through tertiary, must adapt more fully to 21st century skills training — the German approach of technical apprenticeships serves as a good base from which to start.
Why is UVic not a STEM university, given the importance of the higher-paying, skilled technology sector to the Capital Regional District’s economy?
Why are secondary schools not emphasizing trades training that local employers need, in partnership with those employers — providing a path to skilled jobs for those who do not go to tertiary education?
Education is no longer a stand-alone sector; it needs to work in full partnership with the end-user, the employment sector.
The status quo is not viable. Lack of recognition of this basic fact and lack of planning for a genuine 21st century economy — focusing on higher-skill jobs in both trades and technology in an environment of an affordable cost of living — will doom the CRD to a slow inexorable decline with no exit.
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