At this time of year, school trustees and district administrators are normally 颅putting the finishing touches on plans for 颅reopening schools 鈥� student headcounts, staff 颅assignments, classroom readiness and the budgetary implications that flow out of all that need to be taken into account.
People who run public school systems can normally look forward to things coming together and settling down by the end of the first week of school, certainly by the end of the first month.
Not this year.
What makes this year so different is that on Sept. 7, 600,000 kids K-12 (ages about five to 17) will descend upon 1,600 public schools and be met by 44,000 teachers 颅鈥� but about half those kids will be younger than 12 and ineligible to receive even a first dose of a COVID vaccine. All this will be happening in a provincial environment where, in the past month, the number of daily active COVID cases in the province has quadrupled from about 10 a day to more than 40 and is reaching levels not seen since May.
There are now more active cases per 颅capita in sa国际传媒 than Ontario. sa国际传媒 had a 颅seven-day rolling average of just 35 cases in early July, but last week the average passed聽196.
It is against this background it seems reasonable for trustees and superintendents to be considering 鈥渨hat could go wrong?鈥�
That depends who you ask.
CTV News asked Dr. Bonnie Henry whether the steady growth in cases and increase of the prevalence of the 颅ultra-contagious Delta variant in more than 60 per cent of cases in British Columbia, and the fact students under 12 are still not eligible for vaccines, had prompted her to consider changes to the plan for the start of school.
Henry said she doesn鈥檛 鈥渃urrently鈥� intend on changing the back-to-school plan. As one of the most experienced epidemiologists in the country, Henry sounds as if she may be hinting to trustees and superintendents to keep their options open as the science evolves.
Nothing is certain or even predictable when it comes to a rapidly mutating virus.
While school-based data across sa国际传媒 and the rest of sa国际传媒 is not readily available, or, in some cases, even apparently 颅contradictory, early data from studies of K-12 schools in the U.S. do not confirm fears that bringing students together in properly prepared classrooms will inevitably create COVID-19 petri dishes 鈥� although the absence of a standardized national database of school cases both here and in the U.S. makes it impossible to know for sure.
Part of the problem, apart from the颅 颅convoluted politics that seem to 颅undermine rational thought in the U.S., is that COVID-19, as scientists are 颅learning, 鈥渋s not just one condition or one set of 颅symptoms.鈥� So says Dr. Nipunie 颅Rajapakse, a pediatric infectious diseases doctor at Mayo Clinic: 鈥淧eople are describing a 颅variety of different symptoms, like 颅profound fatigue, muscle aches, pains, sore throats, fevers, breathing difficulties, and each 颅person almost has a unique kind of 颅constellation of these symptoms. These symptoms can go on for varying periods of time and be of varying severity.鈥�
One of the largest U.S. studies on 颅school-age children, led by Brown 颅University economist Dr. Emily Oster, 颅analyzed in-school infection data from 47聽states over the last two weeks of September 2020. At that point the U.S. had experienced a quarter of a million reported deaths from COVID-19 鈥� the highest number of any country.
But among more than 200,000 students and 63,000 staff who had returned to school and took part in the study, Oster reported an infection rate of 0.13 per cent among 颅students and 0.24 per cent among staff.
After 28 days, more than one-third of the six- to 13-year-olds had shown no symptoms.
That finding poses implications for school systems here and elsewhere that are 颅bringing kids back to class, and begs the question about whether elementary and 颅middle schoolers who show no signs of infection will spread the virus to other kids and staff.
The good news is that low infection rates support what other researchers have seen in smaller samples.
鈥淲hat we haven鈥檛 seen are super-spreader events鈥� that ignited in schools, says Sallie Permar, a professor of pediatrics and immunology at Duke University. 鈥淭he fear that you鈥檇 have one infected kid come to school, and then you鈥檇 have many other kids and teachers and relatives [at home] get infected 鈥� that hasn鈥檛 happened.鈥�
And here鈥檚 the kicker, and maybe the last word on reopening B.C鈥檚 schools on Sept. 7. Benjamin Linas, an associate professor of medicine and epidemiology at Boston University School of Medicine, who has advocated opening schools under strict safety measures, suggests: 鈥淵ou can only open your school safely if you have COVID under control in your community.鈥�
Geoff Johnson is a former superintendent of schools.
