As Donald Trump leaves the White House for his Mar-a-Lago retreat in Florida, like Napoleon marooned on Elba, the question arises, who succeeds him as the Republican flag carrier?
Yes, there are four years till the next presidential election, and a lot can happen before then. In the immediate future, Trump鈥檚 party will be focused on the mid-term elections in 2022.
The Democrats lost heavily in the House of Representatives this time around, and could well surrender what remains of their slim majority two years from now.
Likewise in the Senate, where the parties are tied 50-50, the GOP has a chance to take back its lead.
In short, the fight for the nation鈥檚 heartland isn鈥檛 over.
But who spearheads that fight next time around?
There鈥檚 been talk about either Ivanka Trump or Donald Trump Jr. stepping forward.
Forget it. The radiation surrounding that dynasty has a half life longer than any of its members.
So, too, former vice-president Mike Pence. He carried himself with dignity and did what was asked of him (not much). But here again, the mark of Trump he carries is a stain that cannot be removed.
Looking back to the 2016 Republican 颅primaries, it was thought at the time that the party had a deep bench. That turned out not to be true.
There was plenty of width, with 16 candidates at the outset. But as the debates proceeded, it became clear that even such apparently well-placed contenders as Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush lacked the right stuff.
Rubio was clearly out of his depth. Cruz came across as just plain mean. And Bush was one shrub too many.
Trump steamrollered the lot.
No doubt, some of this bunch will hang around for another crack at the nomination. If Rubio can grow up in a hurry, he might have the best shot.
But consider who the Republican nominee will most likely be up against: Vice-President Kamala Harris.
Virtually no one expects Joe Biden to run again. The odds are that, health-wise, he can鈥檛 even close out his first term.
Either way, unless Harris suffers the kind of debacles that vice-presidents aren鈥檛 颅usually exposed to, the nomination is hers to lose.
True, she鈥檚 a lousy campaigner. In the 2016 nomination battle, she ended up with a popularity rating in the low single digits, her staff at daggers drawn. Like Cruz, Harris has a sharp edge that she struggles to conceal.
But she would be the first woman 颅president, something her party had hoped Hillary Clinton could accomplish, and that carries a lot of weight.
My guess is the Republicans either have to nominate a candidate from one of the 颅visible minorities 鈥� Rubio, perhaps 鈥� or more likely a woman.
And here Nikki Haley looks like a strong favourite. She was the first female governor of South Carolina (a battleground state), in addition to its youngest, and a forceful ambassador at the UN. It also doesn鈥檛 hurt that she鈥檚 of Indian descent.
South Dakota鈥檚 governor, Kristi Noem, might give Haley a run for her money, but her resum茅 is far less impressive.
I confess this makes the race sound like an exercise in identity politics. But that, regrettably, is where our neighbours to the south find themselves.
So you read it here first. The 2024 U.S. presidential campaign will come down to Harris vs. Haley.
