Defeated New Democratic Party MLA Harry Lali spent a few days after the election on a missing-persons case.
He wanted to find out why 3,000 identified NDP supporters in the Fraser-Nicola riding never showed up at the polls. Result? He lost by 600 votes.
He鈥檚 pretty sure he cracked the case. It was partly complacency, based on pollsters and everyone else repeatedly assuring the NDP that they had the 2013 election in the bag.
Beyond that, it was mostly the fact that the party completely overlooked the need to appeal to blue-collar working people.
Lali said there was simply nothing in the campaign that connected with them. 鈥淲e snatched defeat from the jaws of victory,鈥� he said.
And they did so with one specific move: Leader Adrian Dix鈥檚 decision on Earth Day to come out against the Kinder Morgan proposal to twin an existing oil pipeline from Alberta to the Vancouver harbour.
Lali has no bitterness toward his friend Dix, because the entire party is to blame for the epic collapse.
鈥淏ut Kinder Morgan [Dix鈥檚 decision to oppose the concept, even before the company has applied] put the final nail in the coffin for rural sa国际传媒,鈥� Lali said.
鈥淜inder Morgan did me in. I could see it on the doorstep. It came across as the NDP against the economy and jobs.鈥�
Loggers, sawmill hands, ranchers, trades and transportation people 鈥� most of whom traditionally support the NDP 鈥� all 鈥渟aw us as being against their jobs,鈥� said Lali.
鈥淚 think what鈥檚 happening to the NDP 鈥� we鈥檝e lost four in a row 鈥� is that we are not connecting with blue-collar workers. We are failing miserably.鈥�
The perception was that the party is against the Enbridge proposal, against the big new Site C hydro dam and against Kinder Morgan.
鈥淭he blue-collar guy was saying: 鈥楾hat鈥檚 my job,鈥欌�漵aid Lali.
鈥淚f you can鈥檛 speak to rural sa国际传媒 and the blue-collar worker, I would bet a million bucks if I had it, the NDP will never win an election again, if we cannot reconnect with the blue-collar worker.鈥�
Lali differentiates between union support and blue-collar support. The vast majority of the blue-collar people he has in mind are not in unions.
鈥淚t鈥檚 people who get their hands dirty when they鈥檙e working. They care about bread and butter. Everything else is secondary 鈥� the future of your children and jobs for them, is paramount.鈥�
Campaign tactics fed the complacency.
鈥淲e had a whole lot of grenades to throw at the Liberals, and we failed to point out a single one of the [scandals],鈥� he said.
The harmonized sales tax, sa国际传媒 Rail, the $6-million payout to the guilty aides, the ethnic-outreach memo 鈥� none of the controversies were raised during the campaign.
鈥淭he message that really came across was: 鈥楧on鈥檛 rock the boat, be positive, we鈥檙e not going to attack these guys on anything,鈥欌�� said Lali. 鈥淪o that sent a subliminal message to the voters: 鈥榃e鈥檙e a shoo-in.鈥� 鈥欌��
The polls reinforced that complacency among NDP voters.
Meanwhile, the Liberals put 鈥渢he fear of God鈥� into their voters and milked the electorate for every single available Liberal vote.
鈥淭he unpalatable truth is that people are more motivated by the negative than the positive,鈥� he said. 鈥淸NDP members] are upset; a lot of people are devastated.
鈥淚nstead of becoming a masterpiece, it became a disaster.鈥�
Thirty-four New Democrats survived the disaster and will be sworn in today. House Leader John Horgan said Lali鈥檚 explanation is valid, but there are dozens of reasons why they lost.
Another survivor, Esquimalt鈥檚 Maurine Kariaganis, said the NDP did reach the blue-collar vote on the Island, where they increased their hold. 鈥淲e traditionally lose elections. This is now three for 19.鈥�
She said the bigger challenge is the Green Party, to be represented in the legislature for the first time, by Andrew Weaver.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e obviously a bit more hip,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e attracting young, new voters. We need to look at that and say: 鈥楬ow come they鈥檙e hip, we鈥檙e not hip, and how do we become relevant to young voters?鈥� 鈥�
That squeeze 鈥� between a free-enterprise coalition that consistently beats them, and a trendy new party that appeals to an environmental movement the NDP used to own 鈥� could make the Opposition uncomfortable for some time to come.
