Cabinet ministers on trade missions to faraway places inevitably get amped up about the importance of their visits.
All the meetings are 鈥渒ey meetings.鈥� All the contacts made are 鈥渧aluable new contacts.鈥� All the memorandums of agreement are 鈥渋mportant.鈥�
Sometimes real things flow from the visits. Other times the politicians come home with little more than some souvenirs.
But based on cabinet minister Rich Coleman鈥檚 reports back this week from South Korea and China, there is a feeling the potential for liquefied-natural-gas exports to Asia is as real as many have been saying.
His visit won鈥檛 seal any deals or advance any of the proposals much.
And the biggest factor 鈥� the price 鈥� will be set in the Asian markets, so it鈥檚 mostly outside of sa国际传媒鈥檚 control.
But the reception sa国际传媒 has been getting will heighten enthusiasm for the major plays being made or contemplated here.
Reporting on a conference call from Beijing on Friday, the natural gas development minister said it has been a 鈥渞emarkable鈥� few days.
鈥淲e鈥檝e had some of the most positive meetings we鈥檝e ever had on LNG.鈥�
He has been at conferences where thousands of upper-level executives from all over are talking LNG and he has been hearing serious interest in sa国际传媒 from some of them.
Executives from two major Chinese interests told him they are very committed to looking for significant LNG tonnage from sa国际传媒
Coleman said it reaffirmed the fact sa国际传媒 is considered a primary new player, based on competitive advantages and the work on getting the fundamentals right.
鈥淲e鈥檙e on the right track.鈥�
Asked about the skilled-workers situation 鈥� one of the biggest pieces of the puzzle companies and governments are putting together 鈥� Coleman said Asian officials are comfortable with efforts being made. They are confident sa国际传媒 can deliver the skilled workforce that鈥檚 needed.
Oil pipelines are obviously getting a lot of attention, but Coleman left the impression Friday they are secondary.
The focus of the sa国际传媒 government is on LNG. The province鈥檚 five conditions for oil pipelines are out there and need to be addressed. Coleman went so far as to equate the May election with a referendum on the conditions, which won approval.
But in the meantime, sa国际传媒 is more interested in LNG. So are Korean and Chinese interests.
鈥淚t鈥檚 very clear they are bullish on their opportunities and plan to pursue them aggressively.鈥�
The growth in the market is dramatic and it could be substantially bigger than some are predicting. Coleman said that attitude will 鈥渟tabilize鈥� the LNG situation in sa国际传媒
The final go or no-go investment decisions could be expected in the third quarter of 2014, he said, although some would like to commit earlier if possible.
Coleman 鈥� in Seoul at the time 鈥� said a council of deputy ministers is looking at the big-picture implications. One corridor for several pipelines 鈥� or one pipeline branching off to multiple locations 鈥� has been talked about, he said. There was also a private meeting with First Nations prior to the election about the overall scheme.
There are still a host of factors that could derail the LNG vision. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions will likely force sa国际传媒 to default on the legislated reduction target. That鈥檚 a problem. A global supply glut could erase the premium price for gas in Asia, on which the whole enterprise is founded. Some First Nations could balk, which would be problematic.
And other places in the world planning exactly the same thing could present better deals. Coleman acknowledged that most of the international players now involved in sa国际传媒 have other projects elsewhere.
The companies are keen on sa国际传媒, 鈥渂ut they also know they need to have diversified markets; they don鈥檛 want to be captured in one location where somebody could change the fundamentals in such a way they would get caught.鈥�
So LNG investors are likely saying the same encouraging things to other visiting officials that they said to Coleman.
