All that any team can ask for in sports is to control its own destiny. The Victoria Royals do, as they look to their decisive two-game set Friday and Saturday against the Spokane Chiefs at Save-on-Foods Memorial Centre, to close out the Western Hockey League regular season.
The math is fairly straightforward on one level for Victoria and Spokane over their final two games, although it favours the Chiefs (23-38-5) because they are one point up on the ninth-place Royals (22-38-6). Spokane qualifies for the playoffs with any win in regulation time. Victoria is eliminated with two losses in regulation time, although even one will wound deeply. The Royals qualify with two victories of any kind.
“This is a great, dramatic storyline,” said Royals GM and head coach Dan Price, about the regular season coming down to the wire.
“These have a Game 6-7 [playoff] feel. Like in those situations, you focus on the next game only, and after that, the next game.”
There are still several permutations that could unfold as the Royals (50 points), Chiefs (51), Prince George Cougars (51) and Vancouver Giants (52 points following Wednesday night’s loss to Seattle) look to lock down the final three of eight playoff slots in the Western Conference in what has been dubbed the Turtle Derby.
The situation gets murkier if the games become three-pointers this weekend by going into overtime or shootout, leading perhaps even to a one-game playoff next week to settle eighth place and the final playoff berth in case of a tie. Victoria and Spokane would be tied on 53 points if the Royals win one game in regulation time and lose one in overtime or shootout. There are also scenarios of a Royals tie with Prince George or Vancouver or three-way or even four-way ties, in which case tiebreakers would come into play.
The Royals, Chiefs, Cougars and Giants each have two games remaining. The Cougars close out against Kamloops and Kelowna, two clubs that have clinched playoff berths. The Giants also face Kelowna and Kamloops to punch their time clock out of the regular season. The Royals need Prince George and Vancouver to lose out, which would give Victoria another possible avenue to the post-season even if it doesn’t claim the full four points from Spokane this weekend, as long as the Royals squeeze out some points. But that’s a longshot route requiring help on the out-of-town scoreboard. Because they are in ninth place and currently on the outside, the Royals have the least wriggle room among the four teams vying for the final three playoff spots and are in the most precarious position heading into the pivotal weekend. Yet they also know they can control their own fate with two victories.
“Our players are so super excited that we can barely keep them still,” said Price.
“I told them let’s focus on and trust in our process, execute, and ignore the external noise [surrounding the race to the wire]. And to trust their instincts and play free and relaxed. It’s been a difficult season with lots of challenges, but they have this opportunity.”
There is a broader context to the Turtle Derby. The Chiefs and Giants purposely downgraded significantly by trading several veteran star assets, including both captains and other potential future pros, to contending teams when they saw their own seasons were headed to well below expectations. Now loaded with high picks for the WHL prospects draft, the Spokane and Vancouver rebuilds look bright for the future. (Prince George is young and considered an upcoming team).
The Royals, however, went all in on this season and hung on to their veteran assets, all for the sake of a race for eighth place. How that bodes for the future remains to be seen.
That also makes the return of 20-year-old graduating Royals captain Tarun Fizer, for his final two career regular-season WHL games after sitting out the three previous with an untimely suspension for kneeing, all the more pertinent.
But the return of another key Royals player, San Jose Sharks NHL-prospect defenceman Gannon Laroque, is less certain. Laroque is listed as day-to-day by the league with a lower-body injury. Price has upgraded Laroque to a game-time decision and probable, which would be a huge and timely boost for the Victoria blue line.
